Rou Yu (Roanne) Yap, University of Oxford
This paper estimates the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the labour market in Guangzhou. This is done by studying the effects of past disruptive technologies on the city’s workforce and incorporating theories and evidence from the existing literature. A linear regression model was developed to analyse the relationship of R&D expenditure and Routine Task Index (RTI) of the labour market in Guangzhou from 1995-2022. The model is run with different time lags (0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, and 10 years) and includes three control variables: real GDP per capita, the interest rate, and the total population of the city’s workforce. According to the model calculations, there is a significant negative correlation between R&D expenditure and RTI of the labour market during the first three years. The regression results, along with evidence from academic literature, were used to assess the plausibility of three theories regarding the potential impact of AI on the labour market. Based on the evaluation of the theories, we tentatively predict that AI will not cause very damaging effects on the workforce in Guangzhou due to the creation of new jobs elsewhere in the economy and the flexible nature of the labour market. These findings can help assess the challenge of the rise of AI in Guangzhou from a policy perspective.
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