Rutvij Thakkar, Claremont McKenna -- The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate is as simple as holding unemployment below 4% and inflation below 2%. Unemployment should ideally be at the “natural rate” or the lowest unemployment rate possible without creating inflation. According to the Federal Reserve Economic Database, it’s the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Since the Baby Boomer generation has chosen to leave the workforce and retire, the Natural Rate—now called the Noncyclical Rate—of unemployment has consistently declined since 1980 to approximately 4%.
Devan Bhumralkar, Stanford University -- Inflation has become an unfortunate fact of life in the post-pandemic era. But with Americans dipping deeper into their savings for holiday shopping and keeping their houses a little cooler this winter season to save on energy costs, many are wondering when—and how—it ends. The Federal Reserve has been on a rate-raising mission to combat inflation since early 2022, but while everyone is concerned about consumer prices, what this means for the job market remains to be seen. By the time the dust settles in the pandemic economy, workers may emerge with higher wages and bargaining power.
Louis Lamaury, University of Leeds -- Since the revival of money supply endogeneity of the 1980s, post-Keynesian monetary theory has become increasingly accepted in central banking institutions. In developed economies, academia has paved the way forward through empirical research but has often neglected developing economies. This paper investigates the exogenous-endogenous money supply hypothesis in India from 1999 to 2019.
By Juan Andres Mesias, The George Washington University -- This paper studies the macroeconomic consistency of the Ecuadorian economy from 2007- 2016. Initially, the paper develops a Three-Gap Model to carry out a basic consistency check on all three macroeconomic accounts, public, private and current accounts.
By Sara Diressova, Princeton University
Di Tella and Kurlat (2017) and Drechser et al. (2017a) study the effects of a nominal interest rate shock on various bank balance sheet variables. I study the same relationships using a VAR model, to understand them over multiple periods of time, without assumptions of exogeneity, and with clear interactions between variables through impulse response functions (Hamilton 1994). I find that ...
By Eric Karsten, Chong An Ong, Immanuel Adriana Rakshana, and Arushi Saksena, University of Chicago
The minimum wage is a contentious issue, with proponents arguing that it is required to protect the wage security of low-income earners, and opponents arguing that it places downwards pressure on employment in the labor market. Our paper uses a differences in differences regression model, similar to the one used in Card & Krueger(1993) to estimate the unemployment effects of a minimum wage increase.
By Charles LeSueur, Vassar College
The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether Title II of the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank) effectively fulfills the stated goals of ending “too big to fail”, “no more taxpayer-funded bailouts”, and decreasing systemic risk. I argue that Title II institutionalized taxpayer-funded bailouts under different language and increased systemic risk ...
By Wei Wang. University of California, Berkeley
This study investigates the relationship between developing stock markets and the real economy by examining the effect of stock market crashes on...
By Yifan (Eva) Gong. Macalester College.
This paper attempts to examine technology's impact on the labor market through the lens of skilled labor. Technical changes in the late 20th century are skill-biased...