Erin Lillis, Grinnell College
This paper analyzes the efficacy of residency restriction laws placed on sex offenders post-incarceration in Montana, North Dakota, and South Carolina. These laws give a specific radius within which those they deem “high-risk” sex offenders cannot live. A Callaway-Sant’Anna difference-in-difference model with state and year fixed effects is utilized as the identification strategy. The main finding is that the law’s enactment led to an increase of 23.9 sex crimes per 100,000. It also led to a substantial increase in the proportion of sex crime victims under the age of 18. Results from a synthetic control model and an alternative difference-in-difference specification also found that the law did not substantially decrease sex crimes. The recommendation based on these results is that residency restriction laws are not effective policy initiatives to reduce sex crimes, especially against children.
Read the full paper here.